The hopes aroused by the first round of peace talks between the Afghan Taliban and Kabul government, hosted by Pakistan in Murree on July 7 and attended by China and the US, seem to have been enshrouded in uncertainty since the revelation and confirmation of Mulla Omar’s death two years ago. As to when and how he died, there is confusion, obfuscation and contradiction. He may or may not have died two years ago in a Karachi hospital supposedly of tuberculosis, or he may have died more recently somewhere in Afghanistan — which according to some sources he never left. The truth is likely to remain elusive, possibly for years to come.The Taliban have a new leader and two new deputy leaders and at least for now, the new leadership is trying to project a sense of unity and continuity. But whether those efforts will produce the results that Mullah Akhtar Mohammad Mansour and his Haqqani-affiliated deputies, Haibatullah Akhunzada and Sirajuddin Haqqani, want is far from a settled matter.In the weeks and months ahead, the field commanders and other strands of leadership within the Taliban shura will surely be heard from — and only then will it be clear if Mansour and his faction can maintain unity. Already, though, there are troubling signs for the future of talks. The immediate fallout of the announcement of death news was the postponement of the second round of talks that were scheduled for July 31 and the uncertainly surrounding their revival. The postponement came at the behest of the Pakistan Foreign Office, with Afghan President Ashraf Ghani, who has invested considerable political capital in the peace talks, urging Islamabad to reconvene the dialogue at the earliest. Reports say the Taliban Quetta Shura met to elect Mulla Omar’s successor. They chose, unsurprisingly, his long time deputy, Mulla Akhtar Mohammad Mansour, himself a successor in that position to Mulla Baradar, who was arrested by the Pakistani authorities some years ago and is believed to be still held. Mulla Mansour’s deputies in turn have been named as Siraj Haqqani and Maulvi Haibatullah. This combine appears to suit Pakistan as being amenable to influence and supportive of the peace talks. However, whether Mulla Mansour will be able to fill Mulla Omar’s big shoes and become the kind of universally acknowledged leader and authority that Mulla Omar was, remains uncertain. Mulla Mansour has rivals and challengers amongst the Taliban, not the least of whom is Mulla Qayum Zakir and the hardline group that has coalesced around him in opposition to the peace talks. They were backing Mulla Omar’s son Yaqoob, a 26-year-old graduate from a madrassa in Karachi, to succeed him. For the moment at least then, the pro-talks faction seems to be dominant, but that is no guarantee of smooth sailing in the future.If Mullah Akhtar Mansoor does take the leadership, he will be better placed than most when it comes to negotiating with Pakistan. He was one of those who surrendered to President Karzai in 2001, but fell out with the Karzai regime — and the Americans — and moved to Pakistan where he is reputed to have been instrumental in reconstructing the Taliban into the effective fighting force they remain today. Do not be beguiled into thinking that the accession, if proved, is universally popular within the wider Taliban corpus. The Qatar political office has jibed at Mansoor for concealing the death of Mullah Omar, whose own son Yacoub was thought to be in the running to succeed his father and has seemingly lost out in the power game. The holding of power in Afghanistan is a matter of judicious distribution, governed as it is by a tribal society that is struggling to adapt to the inclusivity of a democratic model that for many remains anathemous.
pk.shafaqna.com
