The Russian government has confirmed reports that it has sent a fresh supply of modern weapons to the beleaguered Damascus regime and that it will continue to do so. In addition western sources are sure that Russia, President Bashar Assad’s closest ally along with Iran, has dispatched additional military advisers and hundreds of elite forces to an air force base near Latakia on the Syrian coast. Moscow, it appears, is building a new runway in that base which will provide for a permanent Russian military presence. Next week, the Russian navy will hold extensive military exercises along the Syrian coast on the Mediterranean. The message is clear: Russia is widening its strategic military foothold in Syria. Any talk about regime change and a transitional phase is now on hold. These moves dispel earlier hopes that President Vladimir Putin was considering a new peace plan that would lead to a Geneva III meeting over Syria anytime soon. It’s a setback for countries that had hoped Russia would play a positive role in ending the intractable Syrian impasse. By any standard, the Syrian war is messy, both literally and metaphorically. It is sectarian, tribal, ideological and territorial. Prior to hostilities commencing, the conflict had been latent for decades, the country held together by successive repressive regimes, latterly in the hands of the Assad family and their clans-people. The Old Colonial powers remained influential, with Britain and France busy behind the scenes. The conflict could have gone on for bloody years but for the rise and rise of the IS, which has forced assorted hands. The Russians have long had a close relationship with President Assad, who they view as a strategic asset. Syrian ports welcome the Russian Navy.
President Obama got it wrong when he said that “This is not some superpower chessboard contest” — because it is, and Russia currently enjoys the run of the game. It dictated the agenda when President Putin met with the leaders of France and Germany on October 2. The meeting was supposed to discuss the situation in Ukraine. However, Ukraine was sidelined and Syria was on the table. All sides were tightlipped when the meeting broke up.
The Russian air strikes are the first outside the boundaries of the former Soviet Union since the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. The air strikes by the American coalition have not proved to be decisive in curbing the IS, and one must question whether the Russians are going to be able to do via airpower what others have failed to do. The potential for military misadventures with several air forces active in Syrian airspace is significant. Civilian casualties are going to rise and the propaganda machines of all sides in the conflict are already working overtime to spin their perspective on the battles on the ground and the strikes from the air. There is no talk of a peace conference that carries any credibility and the war is destined to continue unabated.
For the IS, the Russian action in the short term will make little difference. It continues to hold and administer large tracts in Syria and Iraq, and continues to attract thousands of ‘foreign fighters’ from around the world who are eager and willing to fight under its flag for whatever reason. There does not appear to be a military solution as the game is close to stalemated on the ground. Other players wait in the wings, Iran prominent among them. The war in Syria is emerging as the defining conflict of modern times, and Russia is now shaping that conflict.
pk.shafaqna.com
