Reversing policy on Afghanistan, President Barack Obama announced on Thursday he will slow the pace of withdrawing US troops, prolonging the 14-year US engagement there and effectively handing off the task of pulling out to his successor.Calling it a “modest but meaningful” adjustment to winding up the American presence in Afghanistan, Obama said the United States will maintain a force of 9,800 through most of 2016 because Afghan troops are not yet as strong as they need to be. US forces will stay at their present levels, just under 10,000 troops, until late 2016 or early 2017 and thereafter a residual force of some 5,500 troops will be maintained. Previously, the drawdown from the present level of troops was to have commenced this year and by the end of 2016 some 1,000 troops were to be left behind mainly to protect the US embassy in Kabul. Effectively, the US president has left it to his successor to decide what to do about Afghanistan — and it will be no easy decision. The promise that he made at the beginning of his presidency has turned to ashes because the Western coalition, led by the Americans, failed to win the war against the Taliban that they started 14 years ago this week. Not only did they fail to win the war, they failed to win whatever peace could be wrung from the conflict and now, with the Taliban on a roll militarily, the chances of resuscitating the moribund peace process are faint at best. The Taliban in Afghanistan have little or no reason to come to the table. They are consistently challenging the Afghan National Army (ANA), taking — but not yet holding for very long — urban areas like Kunduz far from their traditional spheres of operation, and already are the defacto parallel government in large parts of south and eastern Afghanistan. The drawdown of US troops last year in Afghanistan led to the most intense and widespread of Taliban summer offensives this year. What is to happen between now and 2017 that will make the Afghan state more viable and likely to survive? President Obama had no words on the subject. It is fairly clear though what needs to be done in Afghanistan: political reconciliation between the Taliban and the government and an improvement in the quality of government. It is not at all clear, however, how to achieve that. As far as governance is concerned, the unity government seems to be an insurmountable hurdle — President Ghani may seem like he wants to improve governance, but he cannot get past the intense and endless politicking that is blocking his ambitions. Meanwhile, with the Taliban attacks more intense than ever and Pak-Afghan ties still turbulent, there does not seem an immediate and obvious path to the resumption of dialogue. Of course, the US remains immensely influential — if it so desires, reconciliation with the Taliban can be made a priority for all sides again.
pk.shafaqna.com
