Pakistan’s headline inflation fell to 0.3% year-on-year in April 2025, down from 0.7% in March, according to data released by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on Friday. Month-on-month, inflation decreased by 0.8%, reversing the 0.9% rise observed in March and contrasting with a 0.4% decline in April 2024.
A market analyst noted this as a historic low, attributing it partly to the rebasing of inflation metrics.
The average Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for the first ten months of FY25 stood at 4.73%, a significant drop from 25.97% during the same period in FY24. Inflation had reached a peak of 38% in May 2023 but has since trended downward.
The latest CPI figure aligns with market expectations. Topline Securities projected inflation would fall below 0.5% in April, driven by a sharp drop in food and electricity prices.
Their forecast placed year-on-year inflation between 0.05% and 0.5%, with a monthly decline of 0.8%, bringing the 10MFY25 average to around 4.87%.
Meanwhile, the State Bank of Pakistan’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), which meets Monday, is expected to maintain the policy rate at 12%. The rate had been cut by 1,000 basis points since June 2024 from a peak of 22%, before being held steady in March.
Urban and Rural Breakdown
Urban inflation dropped to 0.5% YoY in April, down from 1.2% in March and 19.4% in April 2024. On a monthly basis, it decreased 0.7%.
Rural inflation declined 0.1% YoY, compared to zero change in March and 14.5% in April 2024. Month-on-month, rural CPI fell by 1%.
Source: Express Tribune
