As border tensions continue to escalate, Afghanistan’s decision to completely halt all trade with and through Pakistan within the next three months marks a turning point in the region’s economic and political landscape. Kabul’s plan to reroute its imports and exports via Iran, Turkiye and the Central Asian republics will undoubtedly impose heavy costs on Afghanistan’s already fragile economy. However, Pakistan will not remain untouched by the fallout. The shift threatens thousands of low-income jobs in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where numerous small industrial units rely on steady cross-border trade. Pakistan also risks losing $1.1 billion in annual exports, government tax revenue and access to a neighbouring market that has historically been one of its most accessible commercial destinations.
It is therefore understandable that KP’s business community has urged Islamabad to reconsider the prolonged closure of border crossings, which has already caused major financial losses for traders on both sides. Thousands of cargo trucks have been left stranded, disrupting supply chains and increasing the cost of goods. Media reports also suggest that Afghanistan is increasingly diverting freight through Iran’s port of Chabahar to avoid repeated disruptions at the Pakistan border. Kabul’s trade volume with Iran has already reached $1.6 billion, surpassing trade with Pakistan. This indicates that the Afghan government’s move is not merely a retaliation over political tensions; it could represent a deeper and more lasting strategic shift away from Pakistan.
Islamabad’s concerns about the Afghan Taliban’s unwillingness to curb Pakistan-focused militant groups operating from Afghan territory are legitimate and cannot be ignored. However, abruptly suspending trade without carefully evaluating its broader consequences risks undermining Pakistan’s own strategic interests. Rather than exerting pressure on Kabul, the shutdown may weaken Islamabad’s long-standing economic leverage and complicate its ambitions to expand trade corridors with Central Asia. Historically, unrest along the Pak-Afghan border and temporary closures have disrupted trade periodically, but neither country has allowed such disputes to halt commerce for extended periods. This time, both sides appear to be drifting toward a standoff that will harm them equally.
As one business leader from KP rightly pointed out, political disputes between countries need not—and should not—translate into a halt in economic engagement. The example of India and China stands out: despite multiple border clashes and deep diplomatic mistrust, bilateral trade has continued and even grown. A recent brokerage-house report also emphasised that a peaceful and predictable trade route is essential for both the Pakistani and Afghan economies if they aim for development, stability and long-term prosperity.
Shafaqna Pakistan
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