Shafaqna Pakistan: Pakistan’s inflation is projected to rise sharply to around 11%–11.5% year-on-year in April, driven largely by surging fuel costs amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, according to a brokerage report released on Monday.
The forecast would represent the highest monthly inflation level in nearly 21 months, increasing from 7.3% recorded in March. The jump reflects renewed inflationary pressure after a period of relative stability in prices.
Fuel costs have climbed significantly during the month, with petrol rising by nearly 18% and high-speed diesel increasing by over 50%, intensifying cost pressures across the economy. The increase is linked to escalating geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the United States, and Israel, which have disrupted global energy markets and pushed crude oil prices above $100 per barrel, feeding through into domestic inflation.
“On a MoM basis, inflation for Apr 2026 is projected at +2.65 percent, primarily driven by a 22.5 percent MoM increase in the transport segment, following a sharp surge in international oil prices,” Topline Securities said in a report.
Housing and utilities are also expected to contribute to inflation, with liquefied petroleum gas prices rising sharply and electricity tariffs edging higher due to fuel and quarterly adjustments.
Food inflation, however, is likely to provide partial relief, with falling wheat and fresh fruit prices offsetting increases in vegetables and poultry.
Despite the food price moderation, analysts warned that rising fuel and energy costs could reverse the disinflation trend seen in recent months and weigh on household purchasing power.
The report also noted that real interest rates could turn negative again after more than two years if inflation accelerates as projected, potentially complicating monetary policy decisions.
Pakistan’s CPI inflation quickened to 7.3 percent year-on-year in March, compared to a 7 percent on-year rise in February, data from the statistics bureau showed on April 1.
Source: Dunya News
