The world has once again witnessed the devastating consequences of a changing climate. This year, the effects of the El Niño climate phenomenon have been felt across continents, pushing temperatures to record highs even in countries that are traditionally known for cooler weather. Pakistan, already among the nations most vulnerable to climate change, is far from immune to these shifts. Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns and melting glaciers are creating a dangerous combination that threatens both lives and livelihoods.
The Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (Suparco) has identified 130 potentially dangerous glacial lakes that could trigger glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), placing downstream communities at significant risk. While only a fraction of these lakes are currently unfrozen and visible through satellite monitoring, many remain frozen and therefore difficult to assess in real time. This uncertainty itself is alarming. A glacial lake that appears stable today can rapidly become hazardous following a heatwave, accelerated glacier melt or an episode of intense rainfall. As climate extremes become more frequent, the margin for error continues to shrink.
The government’s response—that the warning is intended to encourage preparedness rather than panic—is sensible. However, reassurance should not become an excuse for inaction. Pakistan has experienced enough climate-related disasters to know that early warnings alone are insufficient unless they are backed by concrete planning and swift implementation. Preparedness must be reflected in emergency drills, dedicated funding, stronger land-use regulations, resilient infrastructure and sustained public awareness campaigns. Climate resilience cannot remain confined to policy documents; it must become part of everyday governance.
The urgency of these warnings is reinforced by the National Disaster Management Authority’s latest alert, which forecasts an increased risk of GLOFs, flash floods, landslides and urban flooding across northern and central Pakistan during the first week of July. The country has repeatedly witnessed how such hazards can escalate into humanitarian disasters within hours. Last year, several domestic tourists lost their lives after being trapped by rapidly rising floodwaters. Those tragedies must not be repeated.
Preventing future loss of life requires a far more effective early warning system. District-level alerts should be issued in local languages, complemented by SMS notifications, mobile applications, radio broadcasts and close coordination with telecommunications companies to ensure that warnings reach even remote communities without delay. High-risk districts also need clearly marked evacuation routes, regularly practised community drills and strategically pre-positioned emergency supplies. Satellite technology can provide invaluable information, but it saves lives only when matched by efficient response mechanisms on the ground.
The climate risks extend beyond glacial regions. Suparco has also warned that El Niño conditions could weaken monsoon rainfall while increasing the likelihood of prolonged heatwaves and drought. Pakistan may therefore face the paradox of destructive flooding in mountain regions alongside worsening water scarcity in agricultural and urban areas. This dual challenge threatens food security, energy production and economic stability, demanding long-term planning rather than seasonal crisis management.
Recent casualties highlight the growing human cost of climate change. In Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, the death toll from rain-related incidents since June 30 has risen to seven, while at least two people were killed and several others injured in similar incidents across Punjab. These figures serve as another reminder that extreme weather is no longer an occasional emergency but an increasingly frequent reality.
Urban centres face a different but equally pressing challenge. Cities such as Karachi are becoming increasingly vulnerable to prolonged heatwaves, intensified by rapid urbanisation, shrinking green spaces and dense concrete development. Expanding urban tree cover, creating shaded public areas, strengthening building ventilation standards and promoting heat-reflective construction materials can significantly reduce heat stress. Public cooling centres should also become a standard feature of emergency planning during periods of extreme heat, particularly for the elderly, children and outdoor workers.
Water management must become another national priority. Strengthening reservoirs, improving canal efficiency, reducing leakage in distribution networks and encouraging water-efficient irrigation methods such as drip irrigation can help safeguard supplies for both agriculture and urban populations. At the same time, climate adaptation policies must encourage sustainable groundwater management and greater investment in rainwater harvesting to improve long-term water security.
Institutional coordination remains one of Pakistan’s greatest weaknesses in disaster response. The NDMA, provincial disaster management authorities, meteorological services, Suparco and local governments often operate independently rather than through an integrated command structure. A unified, real-time decision-making framework that enables rapid information sharing and coordinated action would significantly improve emergency responses and reduce avoidable delays during fast-moving disasters.
Climate change is no longer a distant threat but an everyday national security challenge. Pakistan cannot prevent global warming on its own, but it can strengthen its resilience against its consequences. The true measure of success will not be how accurately hazards are identified, but how effectively those warnings are translated into action. Every climate alert ignored today increases the likelihood of another preventable tragedy tomorrow.
Shafaqna Pakistan
pakistan.shafaqna.com
Note: Shafaqna do not endorse the views expressed in the article
