Pakistan’s Emerging Role as a Regional Middle Power/AK Haq

Pakistan’s expanding network of defence and diplomatic partnerships is increasingly pointing towards a role for the country that extends beyond its traditional security concerns. For Islamabad, the challenge now is to transform these relationships into a durable regional architecture in which defence cooperation is complemented by economic engagement, connectivity, investment and diplomatic coordination. If managed effectively, these partnerships could provide Pakistan with greater strategic space while also allowing it to contribute more meaningfully to regional peace and stability.

A significant development in this regard is the decision that Pakistan will provide the first secretary general of the Makkah Defence Alliance for a three-year term. Formalised last month by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye, the Makkah Agreement establishes a collective security framework under which an armed attack against any one of the three countries is to be treated as an attack against all. The arrangement has considerable strategic potential, but its long-term relevance will depend on whether it develops beyond a conventional military alliance and evolves into a broader platform for political consultation, crisis management and regional cooperation.

The three countries have already expressed their determination to work together under the Makkah Agreement to promote sustainable peace and stability. They have also emphasised de-escalation, restraint and peaceful mechanisms for resolving regional crises. These commitments are important because the region is marked by overlapping conflicts, rivalries and security concerns. A framework that combines defence preparedness with diplomatic engagement could therefore offer an alternative to purely confrontational approaches.

The Makkah Agreement is also part of a broader expansion of Pakistan’s strategic partnerships. Islamabad’s defence agreement with Saudi Arabia, signed last year, was described by many observers as a landmark development. More recently, Pakistan and Kuwait signed the Protocol Agreement-2026, aimed at significantly strengthening the military cooperation framework established under their Defence Cooperation Agreement-2023. Such agreements indicate that Pakistan is attempting to build a wider network of security relationships rather than relying on a single strategic partnership.

Taken together, these developments point towards a more ambitious foreign-policy strategy. They reflect what some observers describe as Pakistan’s emergence as a middle power — a country whose influence depends not merely on the size of its economy or territory, but on its ability to combine military capabilities, diplomatic outreach, geographic importance and strategic partnerships. For Pakistan, this represents an opportunity to reposition itself as a country capable of influencing regional affairs rather than simply responding to them.

Much of the renewed international attention surrounding Pakistan’s military capabilities can be traced to its conflict with India in May 2025. The confrontation contributed to a reassessment of Pakistan’s military capabilities and its strategic position in South Asia. Yet military strength alone cannot establish a country as a credible middle power. Sustained influence also requires diplomatic credibility, economic resilience and the ability to engage with competing sides during periods of heightened tension.

Pakistan has increasingly sought to demonstrate precisely this diplomatic capacity. Islamabad played a role in efforts to broker a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran. Although that ceasefire subsequently broke down, Pakistan has maintained that it will continue to support dialogue and efforts aimed at reducing tensions. Such initiatives can enhance Pakistan’s diplomatic profile by presenting the country not only as a participant in regional security arrangements but also as a potential facilitator of communication and de-escalation.

Pakistan’s diplomatic ambitions are further reflected in its assumption of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation’s chairmanship for 2026–27. The year-long chairmanship will culminate in Islamabad hosting the SCO Council of Heads of State summit in 2027. This will provide Pakistan with an important multilateral platform through which it can highlight regional connectivity, economic cooperation, counterterrorism, trade and political dialogue. It also offers an opportunity to engage major regional powers while advancing Pakistan’s broader diplomatic and economic interests.

However, these developments highlight a central paradox in Pakistan’s foreign policy. Islamabad is presenting itself as a supporter of regional and international peace while simultaneously confronting serious internal and external security challenges. Terrorism, including threats that Pakistan says emanate from Afghan territory, remains a major concern. At the same time, Pakistan’s relations with India remain deeply strained, while its relationship with Afghanistan continues to be complicated by security disputes and cross-border tensions.

This difficult neighbourhood makes Pakistan’s expanding diplomatic and defence partnerships particularly significant. Rather than viewing security cooperation solely through the lens of military confrontation, Islamabad has an opportunity to use its growing network of relationships to promote dialogue, economic integration and regional connectivity. Defence partnerships can provide the foundation for trust and strategic coordination, but their broader value will ultimately depend on whether they generate economic and political cooperation as well.

The Makkah Agreement, closer defence ties with Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, Pakistan’s leadership role in the SCO and its efforts at diplomatic mediation collectively provide Islamabad with greater strategic space. The next step should be to convert that space into tangible outcomes — greater trade, investment, infrastructure links, energy cooperation and people-to-people connectivity. A stronger economic dimension would make Pakistan’s strategic partnerships more sustainable and reduce the risk of them being viewed solely as responses to immediate security challenges.

For Pakistan, therefore, the real test of its emergence as a middle power will not be the number of defence agreements it signs. It will be whether it can translate its growing strategic weight into sustained diplomatic influence and regional stability. If Islamabad can successfully combine security cooperation with economic engagement, connectivity and mediation, it could establish a more consequential role in shaping the region’s future. The opportunity is significant, but turning strategic partnerships into lasting influence will require consistent diplomacy, economic strength and a clear long-term vision.

Shafaqna Pakistan

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Note: Shafaqna do not endorse the views expressed in the article

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