Shafaqna analysis: Would Kashmir conflict lead to Nuclear war?


Kashmir issue has once again reached to the boiling point. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s strongarm move to tighten control on Muslim-majority Kashmir is a gamble that could trigger conflict with Pakistan and re-ignite an insurgency that has already cost tens of thousands of lives.

Pakistan’s federal minister Federal Minister for Railways Sheikh Rasheed Ahmad predicted that now India can attack Azad Kashmir, saying “I can foresee a war on borders within three to six months.

Late Wednesday Islamabad took a step further, announcing it was expelling the Indian High Commissioner and suspending bilateral trade in a downgrading of diplomatic ties over the decision.

The nuclear-armed rivals have already fought two wars over Kashmir, which is divided between the two countries and claimed by both.

Earlier this year they came close to war yet again, after a militant attack in Indian-held Kashmir was claimed by a group based in Pakistan, igniting tit-for-tat air strikes.

Ankit Panda, a New York-based geopolitical analyst, stressed that Kashmir was a “core” interest of the Pakistan military which dominates the country’s foreign and security policy.

“So we may see Pakistan step up its attempts to raise tensions … or Pakistan increasing its use of non-state groups to begin attacking Indian paramilitary personnel in Kashmir,” Panda said,

“If the Pakistani military decides it’s going to react in that way …things start to get very dangerous.”

Indian Home Minister Amit Shah, a key architect of Modi’s action, compounded international concerns when he told parliament that uniting Kashmir — including a small section under Chinese control — was a cause worth dying for.

Infact, India’s decision has paved a very clear way for a full scale war between India and Pakistan which is not very far infact.